Forecasting US Crime Rates and the Impact of Reductions in Imprisonment: 1960–2025

This is a follow-up to a report by the authors that developed a forecasting model for crime rates in the United States (Austin, Clear, and Rosenfeld 2020). The report argued that the twenty-five-year decline in crime should be expected to continue into 2021, absent unforeseen exogenous shocks to the factors associated with changes in crime rates. The analysis also showed that substantial reductions in imprisonment could be achieved without significantly increasing crime. In the current study, the authors revise the original model and extend crime forecasts to 2025 in light of two such unanticipated shocks: the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic and widespread unrest in reaction to police violence. The model continues to perform well and supports the expectation that in the near future the violent crime rate will increase modestly and then flatten, while the property crime rate will continue its longstanding decline. The authors again conclude that sizeable reductions in prison populations can be achieved without substantially increasing crime.