Abstract

El Salvador recently had one of the world’s highest homicide rates, largely driven by criminal groups. Since 2003, governments attempted to reduce violence through mano dura policies and gang truces. Mano dura involved aggressive enforcement, harsh punishments, and authoritarian measures, while truces relied on negotiations between gangs, state actors, and civil society. Analyzing nation-month data from 2003–2022, using autoregressive integrated moving average time series methods, we found mano dura significantly increased violence. Monthly homicides were 54% higher during mano dura than truce periods, with 17,767 deaths attributable to mano dura. These findings are robust across analyses and highlight the iatrogenic effects of repressive policies compared to the relative success of truce-based approaches.