Major Crime Trends Differ in New York City and New York State

Using police reports compiled by New York State government, researchers examined trends in the number of index crimes reported across the state between 2010 and 2024 (estimated).

The analysis examined changes in reported crimes and per capita rates of reported crimes in three groups of New York counties. One group included the five boroughs that comprise New York City (i.e., Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, New York, and Richmond). A second group consisted of five areas just outside New York City that the U.S. Census Bureau considers part of the New York Metropolitan Statistical Area (i.e., Nassau, Putnam, Rockland, Suffolk, and Westchester). The third group was every other city and county in the state labeled as “Upstate.”

Violent index crimes (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) generally declined statewide between 2010 and 2020 before surging with the onset of the social and economic disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The surge was limited to New York City and its suburbs. Between 2020 and 2023, the number of violent index crimes grew 17 percent in New York City and 19 percent in suburban counties. In Upstate New York, on the other hand, violent crimes fell 5 percent between 2020 and 2023 after previously declining by 10 percent between 2010 and 2020.

Similarly, property index crimes (burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft) fell 27 percent statewide between 2010 and 2020 before increasing 33 percent between 2020 and 2023. The increase was less severe in Upstate New York. Property offenses increased just 15 percent Upstate compared with 49 percent in New York City and 28 percent in the NYC suburbs.

When researchers examined crimes per capita (i.e., reported crimes per 100,000 residents), differences were striking. The rate of violent index offenses in New York City grew from 593 crimes per 100,000 in 2010 to 636 in 2023, or an increase of 7 percent. If 2024 figures are estimated from partial-year data, violent crimes per capita in New York City may climb again to 651, for a total increase of 10 percent between 2010 and 2024.

Per capita rates of violent index crimes remain far lower in Upstate New York and the New York City suburbs. Between 2010 and 2023, the violent crime rate in upstate areas dropped 5 percent to 239 crimes per 100,000 population. Based on the partial-year estimate for 2024, the rate could continue to fall to 221 per 100,000. The suburban New York City area also experienced falling rates of violent index crimes, reaching a low of 140 per 100,000 after it was 184 per 100,000 in 2010.

All areas of the state saw property index crimes surge after 2021, but the New York City surge brought the crime rate to a level higher than at any time since 2010. Other areas remained far lower than in 2010. The Upstate New York rate in 2023 was 28 percent lower than the rate of 2010, and if 2024 estimates are correct, it could fall again by the end of the year.

Note: Annual figures for 2024 are estimated using reported crimes between January and June of 2024 for each offense.

Citation: Butts, Jeffrey A. and Gina Moreno (2024). Major Crime Trends Differ in New York City and New York State. [JohnJayREC DataBit 2024-02]. New York, NY: Research and Evaluation Center, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York.