Humanos versus Algoritmos: Diferencias en la eficacia en la perfilación geográfica criminal

Studies exploring a number of different prediction tasks have shown that heuristics, used by individuals to reduce complex problems into simpler judgments, can perform as accurately as actuarial techniques. To test this hypothesis they conducted an experiment in the interest of testing whether the advantages of human practice in the task of geographic profiling coincide with the advantages of using computer algorithms. No studies have been found in Spain to answer the ongoing debate as to whether humans can be as effective as actuarial computer techniques when faced with decisions about the location of a serial offender's home. The present research is the first conducted in two Spanish university centers for this purpose. Using a random sample of serial offenders, results indicated that participants presented with a circle hypothesis heuristic and a distance decay strategy showed no significant improvement in prediction accuracy, and that their post-training performance did not differ significantly from the predictions of an actuarial technique. Several possible explanations for the participants' accurate performances and practical implications for cognitive skill integration are discussed.