The CPORT and Risk Matrix 2000 for Men Convicted of Child Sexual Exploitation Material (CSEM) Offenses: A Predictive Accuracy Comparison and Meta-Analysis

There is demand for valid risk assessment of individuals with child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) offenses. We compared the predictive performance of the Risk Matrix 2000/Sex (RM2000/S) and the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) among 365 men convicted of CSEM offenses. In fixed 5-year follow-up analyses, the CPORT (area under the curve [AUC] = .73) had significantly higher predictive accuracy than the RM2000/S (AUC = .66) for any sexual recidivism. The predictive difference for CSEM recidivism was not statistically significant. A meta-analysis found the CPORT had large effects in predicting sexual recidivism (AUC = .75) and moderate accuracy for CSEM recidivism (AUCs = .65 and .66), while the RM2000/S had moderate accuracy in predicting any sexual recidivism (AUC = .66; insufficient studies of CSEM recidivism). Results suggest a tool developed specifically for CSEM offending, such as CPORT, may perform better at predicting any sexual recidivism than adapting a general sexual offending risk tool.